CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-17T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26068/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-19T21:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 30718
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jul 2023, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 016

...Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 23:50 UTC on July 17, as an initial estimate the projected speed is over 1000 km/s. The CME is associated with the M5.7 originating from NOAA AR 3363 near the south west limb. Analysis of the CME is ongoing but, due to the location of the CME origin, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible from late on July 19.


SIDC URSIGRAM 30719
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2023, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 014


...Coronal mass ejections: The halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from 23:50 UTC on July 17 is expected to impact the Earth with glancing blow on the UTC evening of July 19.

Lead Time: 29.48 hour(s)
Difference: 18.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-07-19T10:38Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy